Spain's first African Swine Fever outbreak in 31 years has knocked the EU's largest pork producer off its export stride, creating a window of opportunity for US exporters.
The situation remains far more contained than the 2018 China catastrophe. As of February 13, 2026, 155 wild boar have tested positive across six municipalities near Barcelona, yet zero domestic pig herds are infected.
The critical question: whether containment holds through the March–April breeding season, or whether this becomes a cascading European crisis.
A Fast-Moving 90 Days From Detection to Military Response
Two wild boar carcasses found November 25–26 near the Autonomous University of Barcelona campus triggered the crisis.
By November 28, Spain's reference lab confirmed Genotype II ASF and notified WOAH, instantly stripping Spain of its ASF-free status.
The government moved aggressively:
117 Military Emergency Unit personnel deployed December 1 with drones, thermal cameras, and decontamination stations
A 6-km high-risk exclusion zone and 20-km surveillance perimeter erected around Collserola Natural Park
Electric fencing, road barriers, and continuous PCR surveillance of 57 active pig farms inside the infected zone
Cases climbed steadily - from 9 in early December to 103 by late January and 155 by February 13 - but remained geographically contained within roughly 30 km² of peri-urban forest in Barcelona's Vallès Occidental county.
Zero domestic herds have tested positive.
Catalonia rejected industry demands for mass culling of domestic herds, instead focusing on wild boar population reduction through nighttime shoots and trapping. Weekend hunts in the 6–20 km buffer zone began in February to thin populations before spring breeding.
Trade Disruption Hit Fast but Regionalization Softened the Blow
Spain's €8.8 billion pork export industry - responsible for ~27% of EU production and ranking as the world's second-largest exporter - took an immediate hit.
In the first week:
Zero containers shipped to non-EU destinations
Roughly one-third of Spain's 400+ export certificates blocked
Live pig prices plunged 16% and piglet prices 28% within days
The damage has been uneven.
China, South Korea, and the UK accepted regionalization, restricting only Barcelona province and allowing exports from the rest of Spain to resume.
Japan - Spain's second-largest non-EU market at 17% of import volume - imposed a blanket suspension that remains in force. The Philippines, Mexico, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand also maintain full bans.
Japan and the Philippines together represent the highest-value lost volume for Spain.
An intersecting headwind: China's anti-dumping duties of 4.9%–62.4% on EU pork, imposed in 2025, compound the trade friction.
USDA projects EU pork exports will fall 7% in 2026 - the steepest decline of any major exporter - driven by Spain's restrictions plus Chinese tariffs. Spanish pork diverted into EU internal markets is depressing continental prices, squeezing Danish and Dutch producers already undergoing herd restructuring.
The Lab Leak Debate Remains Unresolved but Tilts Toward Natural Origin
The outbreak virus sparked an extraordinary biosafety investigation.
The strain, classified as a new genetic group 29, closely resembles the Georgia 2007 reference strain used in laboratories worldwide, yet does not match any of the 800+ known variants in global databases. It carries 27 unique mutations and a ~10,000 base-pair deletion, making it a previously undocumented variant with reduced virulence.
The case for lab origin:
Suspicion initially fell on IRTA-CReSA, a BSL-3 animal health research lab located less than one kilometer from the first carcasses, which was conducting ASF experiments during the outbreak window. Police raided the facility December 18 under court warrant.
The case against:
Multiple independent analyses - including sequencing of all 17 relevant lab strains by IRB Barcelona and a comprehensive 81-sample screening by the EU Reference Laboratory - found no genetic match between any laboratory material and the outbreak virus.
A nine-expert MAPA committee concluded February 9 that lab origin is effectively ruled out, pointing instead to accidental introduction via contaminated food waste as the most plausible pathway.
The court investigation remains open under seal, and the full outbreak genome has not yet been publicly released.
What This Means for US Protein Exporters
Three markets present the clearest near-term opportunity:
Japan: Blanket ban on Spanish pork (which supplied 10% of its total imports) creates direct upside for US frozen loin exports
Malaysia: Spain held a 35% market share; aligns with a newly signed US access agreement
Philippines: Spain's third-largest non-EU customer and a growth market where both the US and Brazil are competing for share
The Steiner Consulting Group's assessment is direct: if Spain's outbreak is not contained, US pork exports could surpass 7 billion pounds in 2026.
Even in the current contained scenario, USDA forecasts US exports at 3.2 million tons, up 1% year-over-year, supported by:
Competitive pricing and low feed costs (~$4.00/bu corn)
Tight domestic cold storage inventories 17.5% below the five-year average
Structural demand from markets locked out of Spanish supply
Brazil is the primary competitive threat. It closed 2025 as the world's third-largest pork exporter with record volumes of 1.5 million metric tons, up 12% year-over-year, powered by low production costs and currency advantages. Brazil is aggressively targeting the same markets - Philippines, Japan, Mexico — that Spain vacated.
90-Day Outlook
The most consequential risk is not Spain itself but contagion across Europe.
France, currently ASF-free, shares borders with three affected countries (Spain, Italy, Germany). If ASF reaches French domestic herds, the trade disruption would multiply dramatically.
Spain requires 12 months ASF-free from its last case to regain official status - a clock that resets with every new positive. With cases still accumulating in February and the wild boar breeding season approaching, that timeline extends well into 2027 at minimum.